Recently Japan photovoltaic energy association (JPEA) reported that in FY 2020 Japan’s domestic market of PV panels shrunk in sales volume 16% less than previous year to be approx.. 5,100 megawatt. The news sounds inconsistent since Japan finally announced her commitment of carbon neutral 2050 just in October 2020, which could have boosted the sales unless the market was damaged by COVID-19 pandemic which remains serious even now.
On top of the commitment, the prime minister Yoshihide Suga announced at the climate summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Baiden in April that Japan goes for 46% reduction of GHG emission by 2030 against the track-record of 2013 and it has been said that Japan will accordingly renew the Nationally Determined Contribution before the COP26 of UNFCCC in U.K. which is scheduled in November 2021.
Will the PV market in Japan be revived soon? While there would be a series of large scale PV projects lined up, free land spaces left behind are rather limited. Due to the demanding target of ambitious 46% reduction, down-scaling the size of the projects are not welcomed and it throttles back the PV development as a whole. Social pressure from green activists discourage investors to cut off forests in the mountain for new development.
Another constraint is the delay of 6th basic energy plan endorsement by the government which was swayed to be revised for the new target of 46% reduction. Although the fiscal year 2021 has started in April and the program has been under implementation, those relevant for the basic energy plan will have to wait for the endorsement.
Global boom of renewable energy development also fomented delay of appurtenances supply from factories in China. It has been expected that the supply will remain tight for the time being.
There are some good news as well, including preparedness of “green investment”. Once we settle political procedures and if the COVID-19 pandemic is convicted, the market will demand to accelerate the earmarked development projects. The government will also want boosting the economy with additional investment and the green projects will duly be subject of interest in the market.
After all the PV market may stop sinking further, but you never know whether it will be floated up again, due to the physical constraints.
Can Japan go for green as declared? You will see it but probably not with overfull PV panels covering the whole country standing in knots.
(Jun Nishida)
