It has been more than a few months since Joe Biden has become the 46th president of the United States. During that time, telephone conversations between US officials and the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the appointment of a new Central and South Asian assistant to the State Department, the holding of the first joint meeting of US and five Central Asian republics within the P5 + 1 framework, and etc., Indicates the rise of Central Asia’s place in the Biden administration compared to its place in the Donald Trump administration.(Map quoted from Yahoo's image)
In addition, as one of the most important decisions of his presidency, Joe Biden announced the gradual withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. At the same time, there has been speculation about how to secure the US interests in the case of its withdrawal. Therefore, from some point of view, Central Asia is regarded as the most probable option for the US to station its troops.
There is a possibility that Uzbekistan will host the US base. Unlike the other three republics in the region, Uzbekistan is not a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and does not host Russian military bases.
In recent decades, the Central Asian republics, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, have traditionally been Russia's economic and political partners. China's economic-trade development program (One-Road, One-Belt) has also intensified Beijing's geopolitical motivation for its presence in the Central Asian region.
Russia and China have established economic and security alliances, such as the ‘Collective Security Treaty Organization’, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union, with the participation of countries in the Central Asian region Therefore, the presence of China and Russia can affect the policies of the United States and its allies in the region. Accordingly, as the two Central Asian powers -Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan- are trying to diversify their partners; the United States is likely to intensify its policy of containment of Russia and confrontation with China in Central Asia.
In this regard, Uzbekistan, as the most important ally of the United States in the region, can play a pivotal role in achieving the goals set by Washington officials.
In this situation, apart from the issue of reducing terrorist threats with the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, the US will consider increasing security assistance, increasing security cooperation, increasing the ability of Central Asian countries to meet current and future challenges, etc.
It should be noted, however, that while there are reasons why some Central Asian countries may wish to expand cooperation with Washington, there are also reasons why they want to avoid further expanding US relations.
That means, Central Asian countries are not prepared to give up cooperation with China and Russia because of their interaction with the United States. In fact, there is a speculation that after the withdrawal of US troops, the US will eventually be less interested in the region. In fact, the United States seems to need close and friendly cooperation with Central Asian countries.
Washington is also trying to limit Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Therefore, in addition to protecting human rights and the rule of law, the US will use the (C5 + 1) format to support the sovereignty and independence of Central Asian countries and reduce their dependence on Russia, China and other regional actors. In fact, by influencing the region, these countries can still be regarded as a threat to the US position in the region. In addition, it should be noted that Washington may increase its activity in Central Asia to curb Beijing's global expansion.
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh
Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs
