Following the announcement of the Iran’s Guardian Council, seven candidates (Saeed Jalili, Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, Alireza Zakani, Seyed Amir Hossein Qazizadeh Hashemi, Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Mohsen Rezaei, and AbdolnaserHemmati) have been approved to run in the Iranian presidential election (June 18).  (Photo quoted from Yahoo’s image)

In fact, various domestic, international, economic, political, social factors such as, US sanctions, economic crisis, restrictions, frustration, the coronavirus crisis, inability of Rouhani's government to fulfil its Promises, absence of some major parties and candidates, increasing of subsidies, creating jobs, eradicating poverty, free Internet etc., affect the level of people's tendency towards candidates.  In this period, there will not probably be a serious debate between the candidates as it was in the previous periods. These conditions are exactly in favor of right-wing candidates.

Of the seven candidates, two belong to the left or reformists. Meanwhile, despite the weakness of reformists and moderates ,it seems that Hemmati's chance in various polls in the social networks including Twitter, is increasing.  Hemmati has previously served as Governor of the Central Bank of Iran. Many moderate and reformist factions are close to him. Hemmati is a technocrat with an economic background. If Hemmati performs well in the next three TV debates, he still has little chance for victory. Hemmati's best hope is to enter the second round of the elections and increase the participation of the reformist faction.

Out of candidates, 5 are right-wing or conservative. Ebrahim Ra'isi has entered the election as the top candidate and enjoys more comprehensive and complete support. The two main priorities of fighting against widespread corruption and the reduction of unemployment are at the heart of Raisi's main propagandas. In fact, most right-wing candidates have resigned in his favor this year. After him, Saeed Jalili and Mohsen Rezaei have more chances. However, it is possible that other candidates (with fewer votes) may withdraw in the final days.

Iranian elections are sometimes very unpredictable, and seemingly victorious candidates have lost presidential elections in the past. If no absolute majority is reached for any of the candidates in the first round, the election will go to the second round. The two candidates )who have received the most votes in the first round( will contest in the second round.

Participation of less than 50% will benefit conservative candidates. In case of less participation, more votes will be divided between Rezaei, Raisi, as well as Jalili and Hemmati. But a wider increase in participation could even put a possible bipolar between Hemmati and Raisi.

Iran's presidential election and its results affect the government's foreign and domestic policies. In many decision-making centers in Iran, the presidency is one of the most powerful positions in the country and plays an important role in shaping major policy decisions. The president plays an important role in key national security policies.

Foreign policy in Iran is not limited just to the executive branch.  Therefore, the change of the president does not mean a major change in Iran's foreign policy, but we would witness a minimal and tactical change. At present, there is no sign that Tehran is moving away from supporting the revival of the nuclear deal, and foreign policy is unlikely to be a major topic of discussion in presidential campaigns and debates.

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs