Tehran and Riyadh cut their ties in 2016, but during the recent years, conditions for direct talks and the possibility of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been improved. In addition positive signs have emerged recently. regional and bilateral issues, positive signs have emerged recently. (Photo quoted from Yahoo’s image)
This can have positive consequences and benefits for both actors at the domestic, regional and foreign policy levels. In fact, the consequences of reducing tensions can affect regional and international elements, mutual understanding, reducing the level of regional competition, paying attention to crises, and diplomatic efforts to resolve regional conflicts.
Following the growing tensions between the United States and China and changing the U.S. macro-strategy to reduce its forces in the Persian Gulf and focus on China, the normalization and increase of Saudi-Iranian relations can have positive security consequences in the Middle East.
On the other hand, Iraq, Qatar and Pakistan in recent years, by trying to mediate between the two countries of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, have sought to satisfy their national interests and want the two sides' dialogue to have a positive reflection on the regional conditions.
A very important change in the stalemate in Tehran-Riyadh relations and the reduction of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia can have a positive effect on the negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Riyadh will also be also less concerned about any tension between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East. The continuation of this trend in the Middle East region can lead to an important change in the patterns of friendship and enmity and drawing the lines of a new regional order. Certainly, the step-by-step start of diplomacy can play an important role in easing bilateral tensions and reducing disputes in areas such as Yemen, Syria's re-entry into the Arab League, and so on.
Given the impact of the Yemeni crisis and its becoming one of the main points of contention between the two countries, any new contact in the Yemeni crisis will be fruitful. In another dimension, de-escalation with the prospect of normalizing relations involves economic and geoeconomic benefits for all parties. De-escalation has significant economic benefits for Iran.
Iran can use Arab capacities to develop its industries. Stability in the region for the Gulf countries can also be an important help in attracting investment and development, as well as using the Iranian market.
Better Iran-Saudi Arabia relations could help restore full Iranian oil production. Reducing tensions could also boost OPEC coordination, and the possibility of Iran returning to full production capacity could change the price of a barrel of oil. In addition, relying on commonalities and common interests, instead of insisting on increasing the scope of differences, can provide the basis for a collective security system in the Persian Gulf with a focus on Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as constructive interaction between neighboring countries to maximize regional capabilities.
At the regional level, many actors, such as Pakistan, see the reduction of tensions between the two countries in the interest of the Muslim community. In fact, they will no longer have to choose only Iran or Saudi Arabia. In other areas, reducing tensions between Tehran and Riyadh can have a variety of effects on cooperation such as religion, Hajj, the establishment of airlines, sports competitions, and so on.
The trend of easing tensions now, will probably lead to the establishment of the AFC Champions League representatives' game in each other's country.
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh
Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs
