Countries participating in the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) at their last meeting, agreed that in addition to the two current expert groups (in the field of lifting sanctions and nuclear activities), to set up an expert group to discuss the practical arrangements needed to implement the lifting of sanctions and then the return of the United States to JCPOA.(Photo quoted from Yahoo’s image)

In the meantime, the meeting of the JCPOA will be resumed in person in Vienna. In fact, consultations on the possible return of the United States to the JCPOA and ensuring the full and effective implementation of this agreement will continue. But there are still significant challenges to the negotiations.

On the one hand, indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States are being mediated by the P4 + 1 countries. But intermediaries try to mediate more on the basis of their own interests.

Also, the coincidence of the nuclear talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA with the Iranian presidential election has paved the way for the opposition in Tehran to cast doubt on the nature of the talks. From the government's point of view, the issue of reviving the JCPOA is a national issue, but the opposition either does not see the reviving of the JCPOA in their own favor, or they believe that it should be done by the next government.

In addition, progress in Iran's nuclear program; And readiness for 60% enrichment is another challenge to the agreement.

Another important point is that Iran is focused on lifting all sanctions, including nuclear, human rights, missile, banking, oil, etc., and verifying the lifting of sanctions.

Although the Americans have agreed to lift sanctions such as sanctions on oil, banking, insurance, petrochemicals, shipping, etc., the Americans' insistence on not lifting sanctions on missiles, human rights, etc., can lead to the abandoning of the negotiations. In addition to this, another challenge is verification, its method and the duration of its operation.

However, the desire of the new US administration to return to the agreement is not hidden; But the US withdrawal from the JCPOA has severely damaged the trust of both sides, especially Iran, and over the past three years, an unprecedented series of sanctions have been imposed on Iran. 

The Biden government must also, in the first step, untie the knots of sanctions. In this situation, the simultaneous but multi-stage strategy of Washington, and Tehran's different expectations have added to the dimensions of the challenges.

What is clear is that Iran and the United States have each entered Vienna with different motives, such as the lifting of crippling sanctions, the fulfillment of election promises, the strengthening of relations with JCPOA 's European allies, and a greater focus on Asia and the threat of China (for the US).

Therefore, it seems very unlikely that even by the exchange of concessions and the continuation of negotiations until the summer, the process of reviving JCPOA will be stopped. The West now knows that Tehran has not taken steps to build a nuclear weapon. Iran may either back down on some of its terms, including lifting all sanctions, verifying and reviving the JCPOA in one step, or Washington may give Tehran several concessions. In fact, the motives seem to be so strong that they lead the two countries to continue negotiations to revive JCPOA.

The lifting of all sanctions will come at a heavy political cost to Biden inside the United States. On the other hand, Iran does not seem to view its nuclear program as its missile program and does not consider this area as a defensive deterrent. This will lead to a softening of Iran's past conditions and focus on lifting incompatible and contradictory sanctions and the verification.

In addition, although it is necessary to be cautious in making predictions, the United States seems to have strengthened its will to revive the JCPOA. This position goes back to the Iranian elections to some extent, and Washington does not want the situation to get out of control. In this situation, reaching the optimal point requires that the two sides reduce the main differences to one or two, and immediately agree on other issues.

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs