In the past, Ukraine was the most important republic of the Soviet Union after Russia. But relations between Russia and Ukraine have always been tense since independence. Following developments such as the Color Revolution and widespread disputes in Ukraine in 2014, Russia succeeded to annex the Crimean Peninsula. Since then, relations between Ukraine and Russia have become increasingly strained. In addition, separatists in the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk established the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk under Russian protection in eastern Ukraine. In fact, tensions between the Ukrainian government and separatists have led to the deaths of more than 13,000 people since 2014. Eastern Ukraine, however, remained calm in the second half of 2020. But tensions between separatists and The Ukrainian military has resumed since the beginning of 2021. This has increased the number of ceasefire violations by 10 times and has severely damaged the border tension between Russia and Ukraine.(Photo quoted from Yahoo's image)
Many in the West and Ukraine believe that Moscow's actions in escalating the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russia's military movements and activities, blocking the passage of foreign ships in part of the Black Sea, increase Russia's military presence in the Black Sea is wider than in 2014. Meanwhile, the presence of more than 30,000 to 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has raised concerns about Russia's offensive.
In addition, the expulsion of senior Russian diplomats from Ukraine and its Western allies, Moscow's retaliatory measures, and joint Russian-Ukrainian exercises have added to the crisis. Kyiv's approach since 2014 has been to ask for more help from the West. Ukraine is a NATO ally but not an official member. It is struggling to persuade its international partners, the West and Washington, to tighten sanctions on Moscow and accept Ukraine's membership in NATO. From Ukraine's point of view, Russia is preparing to directly support the separatist insurgents in the East by distributing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to its citizens.
The Russians, on the other hand, accuse the West and the United States of trying to destabilize and further challenge Russia by arming Ukraine. In fact, in addition to geopolitical competition, Ukraine is desirable for Russia in the geostrategic and economic spheres. It is one of the most important countries in Eastern Europe for Russia. In military and security terms, it is also Russia's eastern defensive wall against Europe and NATO.
In fact, any approach of the Kremlin in relations with Ukraine depends on internal, regional, and international factors and variables. In this regard, the type of Russian resistance inside Ukraine and the type of Kyiv approaches can affect any of Moscow's relations with Ukraine. Internationally, Russia remains sensitive to NATO expansion along its western borders.
What is clear is that Moscow also maintains its interests in Ukraine and the Black Sea by using software levers, and in the second phase, if the West and Ukraine don't pay attention to Russia's macro-geopolitical sensitivities and national security, it considers using hardware approaches.
In the meantime, however, the withdrawal of a number of Russian troops from the border with Ukraine will reduce tensions. But approaches such as holding a major exercise with Ukraine and NATO in the Black Sea have anti-Russian goals. Therefore, it is unlikely that Russia will continue to advance its policies in Ukraine through the two elements of local Russian communities and deterrent military power.
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh
Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs
