Lebanese President Michel Aoun on October 22, 2020, after consulting with the political factions of the parliament, assigned Saad Hariri to form the new Lebanese government. (Photo quoted from Yahoo’s image)

 

Negotiations to form this government have continued since then, amid a sharp deterioration in the country's economic and financial situation. But recently, Michel Aoun, in a speech urged Saad al-Hariri to act as soon as possible on forming a cabinet, or step down. 

 

While the situation in this country is very fragile and dangerous, the formation of the cabinet has not been successful due to differences in the distribution of ministries and filling their vacuum by individuals and currents. Lebanon is currently facing an accumulation of political, social, economic, financial, and environmental crises.

 

Lebanon is facing its worst crisis since the horrific bombing of the port of Beirut last summer. Demonstrations led to the resignation of Hassan Diab's government. The destruction of the port of Beirut and the Economic recession caused by the coronavirus and the political vacuum has worsened the situation.

 

Economic losses of about $ 15 billion have risen with the coronavirus pandemic. Being the third most indebted country in the world, and almost one-third of its population living under the poverty line, Lebanon is facing imbalances in imports and exports, economic mismanagement, a somewhat collapsed banking sector, and a refugee crisis.

 

Lebanon has the highest number of refugees per capita (approximately 1.3 million Syrian refugees and 475,000 Palestinians) worldwide, which puts additional pressure on the country's economy. Refugees have shaken the country's labor market and unemployment has been raised.

 

Lebanon's economic growth worsened in 2020 and was severely damaged by the coronavirus pandemic. In the meantime, although more serious efforts are underway at both the domestic and foreign levels to form a government, the disagreement over the structure of the new government or the composition of 18 ministers (9 Christian ministers and 9 Muslim ministers), rulings on non-partisan experts and failure of the political parties to gain a necessary a third seats in the next government, will continue to hinder the formation of the structure of the future government. 

 

On the other hand, despite his travels to the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, France, and Qatar, Hariri has not been able to gain widespread support for his presidency. 

 

 Also, Western countries have said that receiving European and the International Monetary Fund’s aid will be in exchange for the formation of a new government and the implementation of reforms. There is a lot of Western and Arab financial assistance to reduce Iran's influence, full implementation of UN Security Council resolutions, disarmament of Hezbollah, and etc., But implementing of fundamental reforms in Lebanon, intended by the International Monetary Fund and the United States will have consequences such as Limiting the impact of Hezbollah's power.

 

What is clear is that, to deal with the current crises, Lebanon depends on a crisis management strategy, effective measures in various dimensions of cooperation and consensus of all internal groups and factions. Also, the longer the formation of the government is being delayed, the more difficult the solution will become.

 

Lebanon's economic future is not good, it needs $ 28 billion in funding over the next four years, and there is always the risk of social unrest. Meanwhile, the main goal of any government is to stop the collapse, restore confidence and order, but if Saad al-Hariri fails to complete the formation of the government, Lebanon will move towards early elections.

 

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs