Parliamentary elections were held in Myanmar in November last year, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) party, led by Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, won 85% of the parliamentary seats. Rival parties, however, accused the IEC of electoral engineering and conduct unfairly, and called for military intervention to ensure the freedom of the election. (Photo quoted from ANN news)

Despite a major difference and more than 10 million distorted votes, the army practically staged a coup. The Myanmar army, known as Tatmadaw, declared a state of emergency in the country with the arrest of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy party, the president, and several senior party officials and leaders, and took over the administration and control of the government for one year. In the meantime, is the army returning to the barracks?

On the one hand, there is a geopolitical conflict over the country. China is Myanmar's largest trading partner and has significant economic and political interests in this country, and it considers it as its own sphere of influence.

China therefore is concerned about the presence and influence of the West and the United States, and international pressure on Myanmar could run counter to China's strategic interests. Moscow is also trying to expand its influence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. 

Meanwhile, China will have an impact on the country's future if it has more leverage and tools than the United States and its allies to shape regional developments and support Myanmar generals, or continue to use its veto in the Security Council. Conversely, the West and its allies may have a combination of ‘pressure’ and ‘persuasion’, but it is unclear how much foreign influence will affect the continuation of military power.

In fact, the West, Britain, the European Union, Australia, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, have all condemned the Myanmar military, and the United States has threatened to impose sanctions on Myanmar. 

In addition, India, Malaysia, ASEAN, the United Nations, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have all been critical of the coup in various ways. Furthermore, some other neighboring countries, such as Cambodia, and Thailand have considered the developments in Myanmar as an internal issue.

Therefore, the possibility of severe and crippling sanctions, etc. can put a lot of pressure on the military. Also, if sanctions (apart from coercive response) become more widespread, the military may withdraw from public participation in politics.

On the other hand, the danger of the return of martial law and the repetition of their behavior (like their behaviour until 2011) is a major concern in the country. The presence of various ethnic and religious groups in the protest movements and civil disobedience against the coup and the increase in internal pressure can now lead to the army falling short of the demands of the protesters; demands such as the release of civilian leaders, the acceptance of election results, and the return of the military. Otherwise, new elections will probably be held with the engineering of the army.

What is clear is that Myanmar is on a tortuous path to democracy, and its constitution guarantees military influence. In fact, the danger of fundamental changes aimed at limiting the constitutional privileges of the army has led to a coup.

Now a new generation with their extent of access to the internet, civil disobedience struggles, increasing media attention and the prospect of civil unrest may reduce the likelihood of military repression.

In addition, since the independence of Myanmar (Burma) from Britain, the country has always witnessed conflicts and civil wars. Myanmar, with more than a hundred different ethnic groups and full of deep religious and ethnic divisions (many of which do not endorse the coup), may be on the path to secession, ethnic and religious strife, and civil war.

Structural inequality, widespread poverty, and severe recession, among other internal and external factors, are likely to influence future decisions of the Myanmar’s military to return to barracks or continue to be in the top of the power.

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs