During the Soviet era, Moscow viewed the Middle East from an ideological perspective and sought to establish ties with socialist factions. Since the collapse, Moscow has experienced a period of vacuum in Yemen. But various regional and international factors have led Russia to pay increasing attention to Yemen over the past decade. (Photo quoted from Yahoo’s image)
The most important thing for Russia in Yemen is to expand its presence and bases in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and this is effective for Russia's international, trade and security presence and also its presence in North Africa.
In addition, it has defined special political and geopolitical interests in the Middle East and sees a strong return as a prerequisite for Russia to come to power. Russia's doctrine of national security and foreign policy follows a kind of systematic pragmatism, and Yemen is at the forefront of the leverage crisis for transaction with the United States.
At the same time, Russia is trying to avoid major costs and losses. In fact, Russia's sensitivity in Syria is far less in Yemen. However, in fact, the nature of Riyadh's relationship with Moscow and Tehran plays an important role in Russia's approach to Yemen. Therefore, from Moscow's point of view, Russia's decision on Yemen is also important, considering the variables of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Therefore, sometimes it has appeared as a mediator in disputes and conflicts. In another dimension, levers such as the veto can lead to Russia's extensive concessions in Yemen. What is clear is that southern Yemen was ruled by a socialist system close to the Moscow axis. However, Soviet support for Yemen was low, compared to other countries. Meanwhile, at the end of the Cold War, Moscow lost its bases and geopolitical influence in southern Yemen.
Russia's geopolitical concerns now include criticizing the war in Yemen and trying to establish and maintain Moscow's relationship with one or two of the two main parties to the Yemen conflict. On the one hand, Moscow recognizes the legitimacy of the government led by President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Moscow also maintained diplomatic forces in Sanaa and Aden until the death of Ali Abdullah Saleh in December 2017.
Therefore, Russia supported the formation of the Supreme Political Council by the Houthis and Ali Abdullah Saleh. In fact, Moscow has tried to consider the northern side of power in Yemen. The third party is the Southern Transitional Council.
With the leaders of the Transitional Council emphasizing the formation of a southern state in Yemen, the intensification of diplomatic activities for the formation of a southern state in Yemen has continued with a visit to Russia and consultations for gaining Moscow's support.
In addition, Russia welcomed the signing of the Riyadh Agreement between the Hadi government and the Southern Transitional Council. The Transitional Council of the South hopes to attract more support from Moscow as relations between the UAE and Russia grow.
In fact, Moscow's approach in Yemen is to criticize the ongoing conflict, to pursue a ceasefire, to try to maintain and achieve strategic interests, to use its veto power to amend UN decisions and official statements. In addition to continuing to recognize the legitimacy of the Hadi government, Russia continues its post-war policies and plans in Yemen to ensure its effective role.
It seems that Russia's attempt to establish a neutral and independent government in Yemen (not a fully allied state with the West and its allies). It is also important to look to the future of the state of federalism or even the disintegration of Yemen.
In fact, Russia is unlikely to directly support the independence of southern Yemen, but the history of the South's relationship with Moscow and the growth of relations between the UAE and Russia have increased Russia's conciliatory moves towards the Transitional Council.
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh
Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs
