Following the Houthi presence in the capital, the Saudi-led coalition launched attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in March 2015. The war in Yemen has been continuing since then.Under these circumstances, in recent years, negotiations began between Ansarullah (Houthis) and the government of Mansour Hadi, but the negotiations did not yield acceptable results. In the current situation, several factors have led to a lack of access to peace in Yemen. (Picture quoted from Yahoo’s image)
On the one hand, various factions inside Yemen have a special view on the issue of ceasefire and peace and demand concessions. On the other hand, the Houthis have controlled most of northern and central Yemen since 2014, including the capital Sanaa.
The Houthis are not a well-known government, and the Saudi-led coalition sees them as part of the Iranian threat. The other main party is the Riyadh-backed Hadi government. But there are different factions within the Hadi government. These factions have differences in the way they look at the ceasefire, peace and the future of Yemen.
A wide range of Sunni Islamists, southern separatists and tribes have completely different views on the future of Yemen. For example, some actors have only one demand, and that is to remove the Houthis from the Yemeni political scene.
On the other hand, the southern separatist factions have a different view of the ceasefire and peace in the future of Yemen. That is, individuals, parties and separatists want to form an independent government like before the unification of the two Yemenis in 1990. As before, forces loyal to the Southern Transitional Council clashed with the Yemeni government.
In addition, al-Qaeda and currents such as ISIS in Yemen are obstructing the issue of peace and ceasefire. If now their goal is to prevent Yemen from reaching a lasting peace. If Yemen achieves lasting peace, there will definitely be no place for al-Qaeda in the country. They are now trying to increase their presence, especially in the southern and eastern regions of Yemen.
In another dimension, Yemen has a divisive mix of ethnicity, language and religion. In addition, there are more than 10 million weapons in Yemen, and the tribes have been able to introduce themselves as an important actor since 2015 due to the lack of a strong government.
In another dimension, competition between foreign actors, major regional powers in Yemen, and changes in their actions are important challenges to Yemeni peace. In this regard, continued friction between regional actors, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could prolong the war.
What is clear is that achieving sustainable peace in Yemen depends on various factors. There are two ways to reach a peace agreement: a complete victory that gives one side the ability to impose future conditions on everyone, enjoying chief benefits for all parties.
But none of them seem to be available. All parties must also be convinced that none of them will be under pressure in the near future, and that they will not have the opportunity to achieve anything more than what they have today.
In addition, a South-South reconciliation process (that empowers all southern factions to participate in decision-making) is needed to determine the future of the South.Therefore, the situation in southern Yemen can play an important role in determining the future of developments and achieving peace in Yemen.
In another dimension, the proposal for peace in the several areas of: the establishment of a ceasefire throughout Yemen; Making economic and human decisions, building trust between the parties; and the immediate resumption of the political process, is not yet fully considered by all actors.
In fact, ending the war and achieving any peace requires negotiation, an interim agreement, a return to the political process, and agreement on the future of a fully acceptable executive leadership, a solution to the future of the South, and national accountability and compromise.
Farzad Ramezani Bonesh
Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs
