Iran-U.S. relations over the past four decades, has had too many challenges. In fact, the two countries that were once called strategic allies have turned to each other’s enemies today. Therefore, the future of Iran-U.S. relations and how Tehran and Washington will face each other are unclear. (Photo quoted from Yahoo image)

Before, bilateral talks between Iran and the United States had led to the signing of the comprehensive joint action plan (JCAP). But during the Trump tenure, tensions between the two countries spread. But following the victory of Joe Biden in the U.S. election, various speculations about the future of Iran-U.S. relations have been presented, most of them were positive and with reduction of the intensity of tensions. 

In fact, the new U.S. administration is focusing more on controlling China and focusing on East Asia. Therefore, I think Biden's government should try to get out of the problems of the Middle East as soon as possible. Therefore, it seems that Biden would pursue a short-term and long-term plan for Iran. In the meantime, his promise to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, have created a positive psychological atmosphere in future relations between Iran and the United States.

On the other hand, most of the members of the Biden’s foreign policy team used to be present in the Obama administration. Democrats also now dominate both the House of Representatives and the Senate, there is the possibility that they remove congressional sanctions against Iran.

Also the Biden’s government trying to persuade Iran to return to its obligations could implement some measures including oil exemption to buy oil from Iran, agreement to allocating IMF loan to Iran and the possibility of Iran’s access to foreign exchange reserves. But on the other hand, we need to know that the Biden government is not the same as the Obama administration. It means that Biden is facing a broad range of obstacles, and the U.S. sanctions have become widespread. In these circumstances, it is unrealistic that Washington would immediately start the process of easing sanctions.

Meanwhile, it seems that the United States expects Iran to stop all its activities in the last few months such as 20% enrichment, Fordow’s activities, installing advanced centrifuges, and its possible activities in the future. It also seems that the Biden’s government should follow a simultaneous strategy which means to focus on issues such as Iran's nuclear program, regional role, human rights, and Iran’s missile program, simultaneously.

Moreover, Iran should have a positive view toward the Biden’s administration’s concession and consider it as a step towards de-escalation of tensions. It appears that Iran will return to its UN Security Council commitments, only if the United States cancels the sanctions, or takes important steps toward it in practice.

In fact, Tehran expects the U.S. sanctions to be completely lifted and then Iran to fulfill its obligations. In Tehran's view, if Washington reduces its pressure and tries to build confidence by various political and economic measures, we can expect the two parties to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

What is clear is that Tehran and Washington put the ball in each other’s court; so it is difficult to return to the agreement. At the same time, the immediate and rapid return of the United States to the JCPOA seems far-fetched.

In the meantime, although the return of the two sides to the JCPOA can be considered as a step to rebuilding trust confidence and normalizing the past tense relationships, this requires intensive diplomacy and the taking initial and safe steps, especially by Washington.

In fact, although experience has shown that diplomacy and dialogue are the best solutions and they may return to Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but in the short term, Iran-U.S. relations are will be a mixture of enmity and competition and many differences such as regional role, human rights , Iran's missile program, and etc. could play a role in the Iran-U.S. relations.

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs