January 4, 2021
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has been under pressure to run a tough government since the beginning of the year. While the economic downturn seems inevitable due to the spread of the new coronavirus, the approval rating of the Cabinet has plummeted due to criticism of the administration's corona measures such as sticking to the tourism support measures “GoTo Travel” Campaign. It is said that "there is no element that the approval rating will emerge for the time being" (senior LDP official), and while there is a view that he will step down at the expiration of the LDP president's term in September, early resignation observations until April have also emerged.
At the beginning of its inauguration in September 2020, the Suga administration started with a high approval rating of the Cabinet, with opinion polls conducted by news media companies suggesting that he had a history of boosting people from Akita prefecture, which was not the second generation of politicians.
However, it has plummeted since December, with a survey at the end of last year dropping to 45 percent in the Yomiuri Shimbun, and disapproval ratings in several polls. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's indictment of the first secretary of public office over “the Eve of the Cherry Blossom Festival”scandal and the issue of people elections at the Academic Conferences have also resonated. With the ordinary Diet session beginning on January 18, and some senior LDP officials have pointed out that "if Suga's expression flows during many viewers in the tea room, which is easy to cut backwards, the approval rating will fall but not rise."
The biggest factor in the sharp decline in approval ratings is public dissatisfaction with the third wave of corona infection and its response. The Prime Minister persisted in continuing “GoTo Travel” to support the tourism industry. He repeated his claim that it would not affect the spread of the infection, but it is well known that he announced a New Year's holiday suspension under the concern of doctors and public opinion on December 15.
On January 2, 2021, the Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike and other governors of three prefectures(Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama) called on the government to declare the State of Emergency, but Suga has remained cautious at the moment, concerned that the declaration of the State of Emergency in the April-May period last year would have caused Japan's economy to fall the most since the end of World War Ⅱ.
The number of new corona infections has been at a high level, with 3,146 people nationwide on January 3. In light of this situation, Suga made it clear that he would consider declaring the State of Emergency at a press conference on January 4.
One of the biggest focus in near future will be whether to host the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics scheduled for July. The Prime Minister's Office is said to be "intention to wait until spring at the last minute and make a final decision" (person concerned). The torch relay is scheduled to start on March 25, and it is likely that it will be effectively forced to respond by that point.
In addition to the U.K., a new corona variant has been found in South Africa, making it difficult to host championships in Africa, and some say it is virtually impossible to host the Olympics. In the event of a decision to cancel, the former Abe administration, which decided to put off the one-year, will also be held accountable, and criticism of Mr. Suga, who served as the Chief Cabinet Secretary under the Abe administration, is inevitable.
Among them, it is during the dissolution of the Lower House that ruling party officials are worried about. The current term of office in the House of Representatives is October. Assuming that the Olympics can be held in July, in the current situation where coalition party, the Komeito refuses to hold a double election with the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, Prime Minister Suga can exercise the right to dissolve only in the spring after the passage of the 2021 budget or in the fall after the Olympics.
The LDP currently has a weak electoral base, mainly young lawmakers who were elected under the Abe administration, who were very strong in the election against the backdrop of high stock prices. They are horrified by the Suga administration's plummeting approval rating in the Cabinet. If the LDP and Komeito agree that the elections cannot be fought by Suga, who is not popular, there is no need for Suga’s dragged within the ruling party.
If the ruling party candidate is defeated in a by-election scheduled for April 25 due to the sudden death of Yuichiro Hada, a member of the House of Councillors of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), there are whispers that Suga's responsibility will emerge and he will dissolve the Lower House under the new LDP President.
Former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, Minister of Administrative Reform of the Government Taro Kono, Acting Secretary-General Seiko Noda, and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi are among the candidates for the post-Suga. Mr. Ishiba resigned as head of the faction in the event of the defeat of the LDP’s presidential election in September 2020, but he is still deeply popular within the ruling party, such as "The Komeito advised that the Ishiba faction should not be resolved" (LDP’s Ishiba faction).
It is a movement of Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai who has been sought deeply to make the person concerned of the Liberal Democratic Party frightened here. In response to former Agriculture Minister Takamori Yoshikawa, who had served as secretary general of the Nikai faction, resigning as a member of Parliament following allegations of bribery from chicken egg manufacturers, Mr. Nikai placed Sou Yamaguchi, an external member of parliament from the former Democratic Party of Japan, in the back pot.
Mr. Yamaguchi is a close aide to Mr. Ichiro Ozawa, who came from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and entered the political world at the strongest was recommended by Ozawa. In the first place, Mr. Nikai is believed to be "aiming beyond the framework of the ruling and opposition parties for the former Tanaka-like group of the Liberal Democratic Party" because of the relationship between Mr. Ozawa's former subordinates.
As candidates for the next Prime Minister, various human resources such as Mr. Ishiba and Governor Koike enter the options, so the view has emerged that “the LDP will liquidate” (Veteran Nagata-cho watcher).
Fumio Hinokuchi
Political journalist. It has a reputation for obtaining information from Nagata-cho (Political center) and Kasumigaseki(Government District).
