January 2, 2021

  In mid-December 2020, the European Union (EU) held a summit meeting and agreed to prepare for limited sanctions against Turkey on issues at odds with surrounding Greece and Cyprus over Turkish exploration of natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean. As for tougher sanctions, disagreements were noticeable among EU member states, and the decision was postponed until March 2021. There is little view that Turkey will stop resource exploration activities in near future, and there are concerns about the growing risk of energy geopolitics. (Photo quoted from Yahoo Image Site)

 Turkey has been active in developing natural gas field in recent years. In particular, resource development is intensifying off the Mediterranean Sea and in the Black Sea. It was at the end of October 2018 that Turkey's tough stance has come to take a hard line against its surrounding countries and other countries. Turkish exploration vessels sabotaged Greek frigates, which "do not allow Greek interference in resource development in the eastern Mediterranean and else areas." The EU and the U.S. called on Turkey to exercise restraint at the time, but Turkey’s President Erdogan ignored it.

 In the summer of 2020, the issue of gas field was rekindled, with Greece showing discomfort when Turkey was going to explore the gas field with the escort of warships. It is a fire that the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) has not been finalized between Turkey, Greece. France, which stands on the Greek side, sent fighter jets to island of Crete at the time and stimulated Turkey by conducting military exercises with Greece and Italy. As you recognized, Turkey, along with Greece and others, is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an international military organization consisting of the U.S. Canada, and many European countries.

 On the other hand, peripheral countries such as Greece are also showing active movements. In mid-June 2017, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Republic of Cyprus’s President Anastasiades, agreed to push against a "Mediterranean Pipeline" initiative to transport natural gas produced offshore of Israel to Europe.

 The Greek government subsequently approved a consortium consisting of ExxonMobil and others to develop a natural gas site planned off the coast of Crete, as well as a development project off the western coast of the country promoted by the U.K’s energy giant, Energean Oil & Gas. At the end of October 2017, Energian's subsidiary announced that it had signed a sales agreement with a subsidiary of Edeltech Group in Israel related to the Karish and Tanin large gas fields.

 As mentioned earlier, at the EU summit held in December last year, opinions were divided among member states on sanctions against Turkey. The EU has agreed to prepare sanctions against individuals involved in the exploration activities, although Turkey's activities to explore resources offshore Cyprus have been unjustified. Greece insisted it was "lukewarm" and France, which is at odds over its foreign policy in Syria and Libya, also appealed for economic sanctions to be considered, but did not get broad support from member states. In response to the hard-line argument against Turkey, Germany, Italy, Spain and others are said to have repeated the idea that they should spend more time discussing it. In light of the turbulence within the EU, President Erdogan has expressed no concern about EU sanctions.

 By the way, Gazprom, a Russian state-owned large gas company, once signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Israel's Derek Group and the U.S.’s Noble Energy, to liquefy and import gas from the nearby large-scale mining area "Tamar", aiming to gain interests in the giant gas field area "Leviathan" off the coast of Israel. However, the Israeli authorities did not approve the contract. Russia is now looking for trends in Turkish gas field exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean. Tartus, Syria's second-largest city on the Mediterranean coast, is home to a Russian naval base,(supply base) just a short distance from the gas field area.

 It seems that many people expect that the EU will not be able to impose economic sanctions on Turkey by March this year, and that there will be accidental clashes in the eastern Mediterranean. On January 20, the U.S. administration will move from a NATO-neglected Trump administration to a new Biden administration. Attention will also be paid to the approach of new U.S. President Biden, who is leading NATO. A misguided response to Turkey is likely to lead to rifts within the EU and divisions within NATO.

Naoya Abe

Former Bloomberg News reporter and editor

Capitol Intelligence Group (Washington D.C.) Tokyo bureau chief

Currently working as Managing editor at MIRUPLUS